AGP Executive Report

MSME Push in Bihar: India will set up a Rs 170 crore technology centre in Khizirsarai, Gaya, to boost MSME manufacturing, skilling and advisory support, with the foundation stone due on June 15. Renewables Deal: Meta and CleanMax sealed a major 900 MW clean energy partnership for solar and wind projects in Rajasthan and Karnataka, with Meta buying 100% of environmental attributes. Trade & Exports Outlook: Yes Securities flags electronics as the biggest beneficiary of India’s new FTAs, with engineering, machinery and pharma also set to gain. Markets & Flows: FPIs stayed net sellers, pulling out about Rs 62,800 crore in the first fortnight of June, while several top firms saw market-cap gains. Oil & Inflation Pressure: Crude is expected to stay around $92-95/bbl in FY27, raising India’s import bill and subsidy pressure. Delhi Power Cost Fight: Delhi’s electricity surcharge dispute escalated as consumer groups and Congress criticised DERC’s move allowing higher FPPAC recovery. AI Under Scrutiny: US curbs on advanced AI access are intensifying India’s debate on building a sovereign AI ecosystem. Energy Security Angle: India remains Russia’s No. 2 buyer, with Russian crude imports jumping 21% in May. Delhi Arson Case: Police arrested four, including a minor, after concluding the Tughlakabad Extension fire that killed three was planned arson.

US-Iran Energy Shock: A new analysis warns the Strait of Hormuz crisis is turning into a wider energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial drag, with global growth near 2.8–3.1% through 2027 even if hostilities ease. Markets & FX: FPIs are expected to moderate selling in India as the rupee steadies and crude falls, easing inflation pressure and improving sentiment. Retail Investing: SIP inflows have surged nearly tenfold over a decade, with May 2026 monthly contributions rising to about ₹30,954 crore and SIP assets hitting ₹81.6 lakh crore. Diplomacy: India lodged a strong protest with the US after a Gulf strike killed three Indian seafarers, with Jaishankar directly raising the issue with Rubio. Aviation: Air India may downsize expansion and defer aircraft deliveries after losses topped ₹26,000 crore, shifting focus to capital preservation. Agriculture & Trade: BRICS adopted the Indore Declaration, backing seed-rights, digital agriculture and agroecology initiatives, with India coordinating. Policy & Compliance: Income-tax e-filing enables Excel utilities for ITR forms (FY25–26), including rules for choosing old vs new regimes under ITR-4. Urban Governance: Delhi Police ordered senior officers to stay on field duties 5–8 pm and ramp up joint foot patrols to tackle safety and traffic issues. Mumbai Policing: Yellow Gate Police say ONGC offshore battery thefts have virtually stopped after action against fishing vessels entering the security zone.

Energy Shock Watch: The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% for 2026, blaming Middle East conflict for higher energy prices, inflation pressure and weaker growth. Oil & Gas Policy: India is resisting ramping up aviation fuel exports despite jet-fuel margin spikes, prioritising domestic fuel security; EAM Jaishankar also defended Russian oil buys as based on cost and availability, saying the US had asked India to buy Russian oil in 2022. Trade & Manufacturing: India’s new FTAs are expected to boost manufacturing and private capex, with Electronics, Pharma and Engineering seen as top beneficiaries in the push toward $1T merchandise exports by 2030. Markets & Credit: With IPOs cooling, Nigerian corporates are turning to the commercial paper market for faster funding. Delhi Power & Transport: DERC cleared a monthly Power Purchase Adjustment Charge that could raise bills for higher-usage consumers; MCD plans barrier-less free-flow tolling at Delhi entry points by Dec. Corporate/Consumer: Nestle India rejected Maggi infestation claims, citing lab tests; Vedanta’s Anil Agarwal backs easier exploration rules and a single policy for mining below-the-ground. Power Sector Update: NLC India started commercial operations for Unit-3 (660 MW) at Ghatampur, taking total installed capacity to 8,405 MW.

Inflation Watch: India’s retail inflation rose to 3.93% in May, edging up from 3.48% in April but still below the RBI’s 4% comfort zone, with food and transport costs driving the uptick. Forex & Markets: India’s foreign exchange reserves fell $711 million to $681.6 billion, while bond and equity sentiment stayed sensitive to oil and West Asia risks. SEBI Market Reform: SEBI is reviewing delisting and LODR norms to simplify exits and reshape capital-market rules, with the regulator also looking at bond index derivatives with the RBI. Trade & Deals: India and Switzerland reaffirmed commitment to deepen economic ties under TEPA, as Piyush Goyal pushed for stronger investment flows. India–Kenya: India discussed partnerships with Kenya to attract investment in agriculture, agro-processing, health, sports, education and capacity-building. Aviation Stress: West Asia’s crisis is forcing airlines to cut or cancel flights, creating financial strain and slot pressure. Air India Probe: A year after the AI-171 crash, AAIB said it has made “significant progress,” while families and pilots’ groups continue to demand transparency. Labour Rights: The ILO adopted the first gig-economy platform workers convention, extending protections to app-based workers worldwide. Social Impact: World Child Labour Day spotlighted how unpaid household work and child labour remain persistent economic blind spots.

Delhi High Court & Press Freedom: Newsclick said the Delhi HC has vindicated its position, calling ED proceedings “mala fide” and a “gross abuse of the process of law,” as it reiterates its fight for independent journalism. Drug Pricing & Access: NPPA approved a 50% one-time ceiling price hike for carboplatin and cisplatin but flagged a review after six months, citing shortages that are delaying chemotherapy and forcing costlier compromises. AI Funding & Expansion: Equal AI crossed 1 million monthly users and raised $30 million to scale voice AI in India, while Avataar.ai launched Varya, an indigenous affordable video AI model backed by IndiaAI Mission. Markets & Rates: Bank Nifty reclaimed 56,000 as crude eased and US-Iran tensions cooled; rupee also strengthened in early trade, while government bonds gained on oil-led sentiment. Energy Diplomacy: EAM Jaishankar hit back at US “on-off” policy on Russian oil, saying Washington once asked India to buy Russian crude to stabilise markets. Remittance Tech: Zelle plans to enter India by year-end, aiming to boost instant cross-border transfers using bank app integration and ZelleUSD. Critical Minerals: NLC India signed an MoU with CSIR-CECRI to develop rare earth and critical mineral recovery tech from mine overburden and tailings. Trade/Policy: Parliamentary panels met on corporate laws, finance and energy, while India pushed trade pacts to support its $30 trillion economy vision by 2047. Security: Customs arrested a woman at Mumbai airport for allegedly smuggling 11.82 kg hydroponic weed worth Rs 11.82 crore.

Delhi Court Watch: Delhi High Court said arrests in an EOW case were “illegal” and ordered release, calling the police custody plea unjustified. Coaching Regulation: Delhi plans a committee to draft a regulatory framework for coaching centres after the 2024 Old Rajender Nagar tragedy and a recent Saket-area building collapse. Cotton Trade: India withdrew the Cotton Bales (Quality Control) Order 2023, ending a BIS compliance requirement that never took off despite extensions—relief for ginners. Textiles Outlook: Textiles Minister Giriraj Singh said the sector is near $190 bn and targets $350 bn by 2030, citing schemes like MITRA and PLI. Space Industry: IN-SPACe urged a true single-window clearance for space tech to avoid export and dispatch delays. Global Growth: World Bank nudged India’s FY27 growth forecast to 6.6% while cutting global growth to 2.5% amid West Asia risks. Energy & Shipping: US became India’s top LNG/LPG supplier as Gulf shipments fell; India also protested attacks on vessels near Oman and urged safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Mumbai Civic & Crime: BMC plans “civic sense” textbooks; Mumbai Crime Branch busted an illegal debt-recovery call centre in Goregaon. NRI Banking: AU Small Finance Bank raised FCNR deposit rates up to 7.10% from June 10.

Metro Update (Mumbai): MMRC says extra lifts and escalators on the Aqua Line will open from Thursday morning at key stations like Hutatma Chowk, Dharavi, Acharya Atre Chowk and Sahar Road, and it has also expanded mobile network coverage underground—Airtel between Aarey JVLR and BKC, and Vi from Aarey JVLR to Acharya Atre Chowk. Geopolitics & Shipping: India told the UN Security Council it is firmly opposed to attacks on merchant vessels as West Asia tensions involving Iran worsen, stressing safety of Indian citizens and the need for dialogue. Security Alert (Mumbai): Mumbai agencies are investigating threatening emails sent to BMC and other offices, allegedly referencing “Khalistan National Army” and warning of blasts at locations including the CMO, mayor’s office and BSE. Trade Policy (Steel & Textiles): India rejected US claims of excess capacity in steel and textiles, arguing low per-capita consumption undercuts any “overcapacity” narrative. Energy Security (India-UAE): India and the UAE are working to expand strategic crude oil reserves in India to 30 million barrels from 5.8 million, using a mix of existing caverns and new infrastructure. Markets: Midday trading showed Nifty 50 at 23,294.85 (+0.34%) and Sensex at 74,290.97 (+0.42%), while the IT index fell 1.18%.

Starlink Security Clampdown: India has paused Starlink launch approvals after concerns that terminals were used in Iran without proper authorization, raising questions about control over the network ahead of SpaceX’s IPO. Meta-Reliance AI Data Centre Deal: Meta will lease a 168MW AI data centre from Reliance in Jamnagar, with Reliance to build and deliver within two years; Meta also signed clean-energy deals near 1GW. Oman Shipping Crisis: After a US strike disabled the tanker Settebello off Oman, India says 21 of 24 Indian crew were rescued and 3 are missing; New Delhi lodged a protest and urged de-escalation. India-US Trade Push: A USIBC-Grant Thornton report flags hydrocarbons as a key lever to reach $500B bilateral trade by 2030. Home Services Formalising: ProNearMe’s survey of 5,000 users across Delhi-NCR, Mumbai and Bengaluru finds verified-platform adoption is accelerating and fraud fears are pushing customers toward organised players. Markets & Rupee: India bond inflows jumped over $1B in days; equities ended flat with broader weakness, while the rupee slipped early trade. Mumbai Hawker IDs: BMC began issuing QR-code identity cards to registered hawkers to improve transparency.

AI Infrastructure & Enterprise Tech: Reliance Industries and Meta are teaming up for Meta’s first AI-enabled data centre in India—an initial 168 MW facility in Jamnagar, Gujarat, with options to scale—alongside a broader enterprise AI push using Meta’s Llama models. Capital Raising (EV Charging & Proptech): EV charging startup Exponent Energy raised about $21m in Series B2 led by 360 ONE Asset and TDK Ventures, while gated-community platform Mygate raised nearly $24m led by Dharana Capital to expand to more homes. Corporate Dispute: Linde India minority investors allege the company is withholding a key valuation report tied to a long-running SEBI-linked dispute; the matter is before the Supreme Court. Cloud Disruption: Google Cloud services faced network disruptions in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai after a fire at a third-party data centre, with traffic rerouted but latency spikes reported. Markets & Macro: India’s oil shock is weighing on growth and finances as fuel-tax cuts are announced; hiring sentiment also cools, with Q3 outlook down 20 points. Policy & Education: India approved three foreign universities to set up campuses—Bristol and York in Mumbai, UNSW in Bengaluru—under NEP 2020. Trade Friction: Nepal restricted mango imports from India over pesticide residue and quarantine concerns, following Japan’s similar move. Local Business Impact: Mumbai’s water crisis debate flares after a viral claim of high rents but irregular supply, while the BMC has already imposed a 10% water cut.

Starlink Blocked Over Security: India has reportedly frozen final clearance for Elon Musk’s Starlink to start full commercial operations, citing security concerns after reports of terminals being used during the Iran-related Middle East conflict despite lacking Iran licence. Energy & Oil Shock: Opposition Congress urged the government to absorb higher crude costs instead of passing the burden to consumers, warning fuel and essentials price hikes could hit demand and growth. Border Connectivity Boost: India completed a breakthrough in the Zojila tunnel to the China border, a key all-weather link for Ladakh that should reduce winter isolation. Exports Hit Record: India’s exports touched a record $863 bn in FY25-26, with merchandise, services and non-petroleum exports all rising on trade deals. Rural Fintech Moves: Spice Money appointed Nitin Sachdeva as CHRO and elevated Rohit Sood as CBO to scale rural digital finance. Markets Watch: RBI drew $800 mn in foreign bond inflows over two days; meanwhile, India’s 10-year government bond yield hit 6.91% as oil prices eased. Infrastructure in Mumbai: Maharashtra approved ₹22,611 crore for MMR projects including the Gaimukh–Fountain Hotel tunnel and Navi Mumbai Metro expansion. Transport Policy: Air India launched Easy Connect flights from Varanasi under the hub-and-spoke model to complete international formalities at origin. Labour & Compliance: DGS blacklisted 88 vessels and restricted 278 for abandoning Indian seafarers at foreign ports. Health Insurance Update: IRDAI’s latest guidelines aim to make health policies clearer and improve cashless claim experience for policyholders.

Flex-Fuel Push: India launched E85 fuel in New Delhi, aiming to cut crude imports and boost low-carbon mobility, following the earlier unveiling of a flex-fuel passenger vehicle by Maruti Suzuki. Afghanistan Support & UN Diplomacy: India told the UN it will keep backing Afghanistan with humanitarian and capacity-building help across 34 provinces, while also sharply rebutting Pakistan’s “Fitna al Hindustan” narrative as state-sponsored misinformation. Energy Markets: The government paved the way for Coal Exchanges under new rules, shifting coal trading toward a transparent many-to-many, market-driven price discovery model. Pharma Partnerships: Piyush Goyal invited global pharma firms to partner with India’s innovation-led growth, saying the sector could double to $120 bn in five years. EV & Mobility Expansion: Hyundai plans its first mass-market EV from Chennai in 2026 and VinFast-backed Green SM launched an all-electric ride-hailing service in India. Banking & Rates: HDFC Bank raised MCLR by up to 10 bps, likely lifting EMIs; RBI also launched twin USD-INR forex swap facilities to attract foreign inflows. Infrastructure Watch: Zojila Tunnel’s final breakthrough nears, targeting 2028 commissioning for all-weather Kashmir-Ladakh connectivity. Trade & Macro: India’s current account surplus narrowed to $7.1 bn in Q4 FY26 on stronger services exports and remittances. Corporate/Legal: ED expanded the CMRL probe alleging fictitious software expenses linked to Veena Vijayan’s firm.

RBI Signals Caution: RBI kept the repo rate at 5.25% and stayed neutral, but flagged rising inflation risks from global supply shocks, energy prices and a possible weak monsoon. Growth & Markets: India’s GDP growth story stays strong on paper (7.7% in FY26), yet analysts warn the “tough part” is ahead as the rupee and foreign flows stay under pressure; markets also dipped amid Iran-war flareups. Current Account Boost: RBI data showed a Q4 FY26 current account surplus of $7.1 bn, led by services exports and remittances, even as merchandise trade deficit widened. Trade Deal Push: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the first tranche of the India-US trade pact could be signed by July, after US Section 301 steps. SEBI Crackdown Fallout: Kotak India Growth Fund II paid ~₹10.88 lakh to settle a SEBI case over a 5+ year delay in winding up; separately, Rajesh Exports faced SEBI action alleging revenue inflation. Industrial Push: Goyal launched the BHAVYA portal for 100 investment-ready industrial parks (₹33,660 cr outlay). Corporate & Consumer: BMW India plans up to 2% price hikes from July; CBIZ completed acquisition of India’s BINDZ Consulting. Cities & Civic Costs: Mumbai saw BMC suspending an official in a ₹16.24-crore fraud case; Kamothe residents blocked roads over recurring power cuts.

RBI Watch: RBI slapped ₹44.90 lakh penalty on Canara Bank and Puran Associates for KYC and asset-classification lapses, citing regulatory non-compliance. Markets: Dalal Street stayed weak in early trade and midday, with Nifty around 23,190-23,215 and Sensex near 73,700 as global risk cues and oil worries kept sentiment cautious. Energy Outlook: World Bank’s Neelkanth Mishra said India can still grow 8%+ despite crude shocks, calling the “oil impact” narrative overstated. Debt Market Reform: SEBI and RBI are working to introduce derivatives on corporate bond indices to improve liquidity and price discovery. Quick Commerce Race: Amazon India’s head said the company is building quick commerce with “widest assortment” and Prime to scale fast across 100+ cities. Corporate Expansion: Haleon will invest ~₹2,000 crore to set up its first India manufacturing plant in Pithampur (oral care), targeting operations by 2029-30. Tax Ruling: ITAT Pune held taxmen can’t treat ₹1.28 crore cash deposits as unexplained when the scrap business turnover/profit approach was accepted in earlier years. Infrastructure & Cities: BMC restored water supply in Kurla after a major pipeline repair; a minor fire at Thane civic HQ was quickly contained. Cyber Crime: Delhi Police cyber cell busted a mule-account network linked to Rs 1.91 lakh fraud. Immigration: West Bengal reported deporting nearly 5,000 Bangladeshis since the BJP took power.

Corporate Tax Roadmap: The government is set to unveil a 5-year corporate tax roadmap, keeping rates unchanged until FY30-31, aiming to give businesses long-term certainty. Border Trade Digitisation: Amit Shah will launch the Land Port Management System (LPMS) to digitise land-port cargo and passenger workflows, cutting delays via single-window clearances and integration with national platforms. India-Nepal Payments: Nepal and India launched direct cross-border cash transfers using UPI–NPI linkages, enabling bank-to-bank transfers with defined limits. Energy Shock Watch: With Strait of Hormuz risks back in focus, India’s oil import exposure is highlighted as crude volatility could strain the current account and household budgets. Monsoon Uncertainty: The southwest monsoon’s late arrival to Kerala comes with a warning of uneven rainfall and a higher chance of deficiency, raising crop risk. Household Pressure: Analysts say India’s growth may look fine in GDP terms, but uncertainty is hitting household finances and consumption. Mumbai Infra & Environment: Metro Line-1 marks 12 years with 125 crore commuters and 99.99% punctuality, while Powai Lake sewage discharge is set to continue till 2027 due to STP delays. Enforcement & Crime: DRI seized 3.2 kg of smuggled gold worth ₹5 crore at Mumbai airport; Delhi’s Malviya Nagar hotel fire death toll rose to 22. Tech & Jobs: T-Mobile opened a Global Technology Centre in Hyderabad, planning near 1,000 hires by 2027.

LPG Price Hike: India raised domestic LPG cylinder prices by ₹29 to ₹942 for a 14.2-kg cylinder in Delhi, with the government saying households still pay among the world’s lowest rates and that the state absorbs much of the import-linked cost pressure. Energy & Markets: With West Asia shipping risks lingering, analysts warn that any prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could lift energy and food costs across Asia, adding strain to oil-importing economies. India-Nepal Ties: Nepal’s FM Shishir Khanal pushed for a diplomatic, “open heart” approach to the border dispute while India and Nepal launched UPI-NPI peer-to-peer cross-border payments and a BHASHINI-Kathmandu University multilingual AI push. Corporate & Capital Flows: Nestlé India’s royalty payment to its Swiss parent crossed ₹1,000 crore in FY26, while early signs of AI trade cooling in the US may affect foreign portfolio flows into India. Banking Watch: IndusInd Bank clarified it received no PMO/RBI whistleblower communication, amid governance chatter. Education Policy: Delhi teachers urged easing NIOS restrictions that block some students from science and commerce streams in government schools. Economy Data: MoSPI’s modernised Index of Industrial Production series shows April industrial output growth at 4.9%.

Growth & Markets: India’s GDP grew 7.8% in Q4 (Jan-March) and 7.7% for FY26, beating expectations even as West Asia risks loom; PM Modi also pushed a “Reform Express” agenda while SBI Research says FY27 growth could top RBI’s 6.6% forecast if April-May momentum holds. RBI & Rupee: RBI kept the repo rate at 5.25% and unveiled steps to attract foreign capital to support the rupee, including measures for eligible foreign investors. US Trade: India-US talks on a first-phase bilateral trade pact are progressing, with a possible mid-July timeline. Energy & Fuel: India expands its ethanol push with E85 petrol at a Rs 20/litre discount to E20, and Oil India reported a third Andaman offshore gas discovery. India-Nepal Ties: Jaishankar handed over 72 health facilities and 12 heritage projects and launched UPI-NPI linkage for cross-border remittances. Urban Governance: Delhi escalated crackdowns on illegal construction and fire-safety violations after the Malviya Nagar B&B blaze; Delhi also moved to penalise negligent officials. Real Estate/Finance: Mumbai consumer panel ordered a builder to refund/hand over a flat after an 11-year delay; Canara Bank faced an RBI monetary penalty for delayed currency chest reporting. Youth Protest: The “Cockroach Janta Party” founder led a street protest in Delhi over alleged exam irregularities, drawing heavy police presence.