AGP Executive Report

Renewables Deal: Inox Clean Energy will acquire Singapore-backed Vena Energy’s India renewables platform (6GW portfolio; ~1.2GW operational) in a deal reportedly worth around Rs 6,000 crore, marking GIP’s exit and expanding Inox’s pipeline beyond 12GW. Investor Tax Push: India is considering tax relief for foreign investors in government securities amid rupee pressure and record FPI outflows; Congress calls it “panic mode,” while markets see it as an attempt to stem capital flight. India-Venezuela Energy Pivot: PM Modi met Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodriguez; talks focused on energy complementarity, trade, investment, healthcare and autos as India seeks new crude supply sources. Cross-border Payments: Bank of America plans to launch cross-border real-time payments next quarter via Swift/CashPro, targeting faster, lower-cost flows for corporates and financial institutions. Delhi Fire Crackdown: After the Malviya Nagar B&B blaze that killed 21 (including 12 foreigners), Delhi orders fire safety audits and withdraws the B&B licensing scheme; investigations point to serious safety and licensing violations. Markets & Currency: Gold ETFs saw their first monthly outflow in a year in May as investors booked profits after higher import duties; India’s GDP growth is seen easing to ~7.1–7.2% in Q4 FY26. US Tariff Threat: The US proposes additional tariffs tied to forced-labour claims, with India among countries facing 12.5% duties—prompting pushback from trading partners including China.

Aviation Fuel Shield: India’s Cabinet approved a one-time up to ₹100bn ($1.04bn) ATF price stabilisation support for airlines to curb fuel-cost volatility and protect fares. US Trade Pressure: Washington proposed 12.5% tariffs on India and 54 other countries under forced-labour concerns, even as India and the US hold talks on a Section 301 interim trade framework. Debt Market Push: India is set to remove capital gains tax on FPIs for government securities to attract steadier foreign flows into bonds and support the rupee. Foreign Flows Cool Off: Foreign investor confidence in Indian equities fell to a decade low, with inflows dropping to the lowest since 2016. Banking Credit Boom: Bank lending grew 16.2% year-on-year through May 15, with credit demand outpacing deposits for the eighth straight month. Mumbai Water Stress: Mumbai’s 10% water cut has left the city with about 45 days of supply as lakes hit low levels, spotlighting regional water-control gaps. Digital Governance: PM-WANI public Wi-Fi now has 3.9 lakh hotspots and 2.45 crore users, using a licence-free model for small operators. Corporate/Markets: SEBI restrained Rajesh Exports’ chairman over alleged financial misrepresentation; Apple agreed to share India financials with the CCI in its antitrust case.

US Tariff Threat: The USTR has proposed up to a 12.5% forced-labour tariff on imports from India and 45 other economies, with 10% proposed for another set of countries; the move comes as India-US trade talks near an interim deal, raising fresh cost and competitiveness concerns for exporters. Aviation Fuel Relief: India’s Cabinet approved a $1 billion support package for airlines via interest-free advances to oil marketing firms to cushion record ATF price spikes tied to the West Asia conflict, aiming to protect connectivity and jobs. RBI Gold Row: India’s finance ministry and the RBI denied reports that the central bank sold $12 billion in gold; RBI data shows gold holdings rose to 880.52 tonnes as of March 31, 2026. Delhi Hotel Fire: Delhi Police registered a culpable homicide case after the Malviya Nagar blaze killed at least 21 people; the hotel owner and alleged partners are under scrutiny. Markets & Deals: Kotak Alts closed its $1 billion 14th real estate fund; in tech, Super Micro and Gorilla Technology slid despite announcing a roughly $2 billion India AI infrastructure deal, with investors focused on financing risk. Policy/Industry: India scrapped an 11% raw cotton import duty for June-October to ease supply and costs; CBSE’s OSM controversy continues as a class XII whistleblower briefed a parliamentary panel.

US Tariff Shock: The USTR has proposed additional duties of 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, including India, under Section 301 over alleged failures to effectively enforce bans on goods made with forced labour—an issue now set to weigh on India-US interim trade talks in New Delhi. Trade Talks in Focus: India is seeking relief from the Section 301 probes and lower tariff rates as negotiators push to finalise an interim bilateral trade agreement, with a textile mechanism also on the table. Rupee & RBI Watch: Amid rupee pressure and West Asia risks, reports say the RBI may have sold part of its gold reserves to support foreign-currency liquidity. Markets & Inflation: Bank of Baroda expects retail inflation to stay elevated around 5% by FY27, with food and energy costs and El Niño-linked weather risks in focus; services PMI rose to 59.8 in May. Delhi Fire Tragedy: A restaurant fire in Malviya Nagar killed 16, with dozens rescued and hospitalised. Corporate & Tech: IndusInd Bank faces whistleblower allegations; Microsoft Copilot usage in India jumped 250% to 20 million seats; CMR Green Technologies’ ₹630.62 cr IPO opens. Local Economy: Pune-Mumbai cab fares rose by Rs 300-400 as fuel and CNG costs climbed; Maharashtra plans app-based cooperative “Bharat Taxi” rules.

Maharashtra Economy & Assets: The state government has formally acquired Mumbai’s iconic Air India building for Rs 1,601 crore, with agreement transfers completed in the presence of CM Devendra Fadnavis. Public Markets & Inflation Data: India approved a revised WPI base year (to 2022-23) and will release new WPI and Producer Price Indices from June 15, with WPI to run for five years alongside PPI. Trade & Tariffs: India and the US are “about 99%” done on the first tranche of a trade deal as a US delegation meets Indian officials in New Delhi, with Section 301 relief and tariff terms central to talks. Digital Commerce: Uber will invest in ONDC to deepen mobility and logistics services via India’s open digital commerce network. AI-Driven Hiring: White-collar hiring stayed stable in May, with AI/ML roles growing sharply; Hyderabad led metro hiring momentum. Cloud Spending: Gartner expects India’s public cloud spend to cross $17.5 billion in 2026, driven by AI-ready infrastructure demand. Education & Civic Services: Thane Municipal Corporation will open its first CBSE school in Kharegaon on June 8 with free education up to Class 12. Health Infrastructure: Nagaland’s HC directed the state to ensure at least one blood storage centre or bank in every district and expand transfusion specialists. Energy & Commodities: Oman fertiliser JV OMIFCO plans to sell a 25% stake in an IPO in Muscat next month.

India–US Trade Talks: India and the US began fresh negotiations in New Delhi to finalise the first phase of an interim bilateral trade deal, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal saying about 99% of issues are done; the big sticking point is how Section 301 tariff investigations will be handled. ED Crackdowns: The Enforcement Directorate arrested key accused in the ₹645-crore IDFC First Bank fraud and ₹145-crore Panchkula municipal funds scam, and also searched Vedanta-linked premises in Delhi and Mumbai under FEMA. EV Momentum: India’s EV sales hit a new peak in May, up sharply year-on-year as fuel prices push buyers toward EVs; Tata leads while Mahindra and MG gain momentum. BYD Enters PHEV Race: BYD will debut its first plug-in hybrid in India on June 9, signalling a shift beyond EV-only sales. Coca-Cola Listing Plan: Coca-Cola is exploring a 2027 IPO of its India bottling arm Hindustan Coca-Cola Holdings and may sell part of its stake. Markets & Rupee: Early trade saw Sensex and Nifty slip on Middle East risk worries and foreign outflows, while the rupee edged up to 95.03 per dollar. Urban Governance: BMC plans QR-code hawker IDs from June 10 to improve monitoring and curb unauthorised vending. Manufacturing Pulse: HSBC’s PMI showed India’s manufacturing activity improving in May, though input costs stayed elevated.

Data Centres & AI Infrastructure: Blackstone-backed AirTrunk plans a $21.05 bn, 3GW data centre near Mumbai in Maharashtra, as India courts massive foreign tech investment with tax incentives. Cloud & Digital Economy: Gartner forecasts India’s public cloud spending to jump 28.1% to $17.5 bn in 2026, driven by AI-ready infrastructure and faster enterprise adoption. Trade Policy: UK Trade Secretary Peter Kyle is in New Delhi to fast-track the India-UK FTA; meanwhile, India may revisit Scotch whisky tariff perks if UK steel safeguards hurt Indian exports. Defence Procurement: India has issued a Letter of Request to France for 114 Rafale jets in a ~Rs 3.25 lakh crore deal, with most aircraft planned for Make-in-India manufacturing. Fiscal Watch: India’s FY26 fiscal deficit is at 4.4% of GDP, with FY27 target set at 4.3%. Banking/Corporate: Axis Bank raises its Axis Max Life stake to 19.99%; CBI gets court nod to arrest Amitabh Jhunjhunwala in a major bank-loan fraud case. Sports Media: Zee wins FIFA World Cup 2026 broadcast rights in India through 2034, ending a rights standoff. Energy Security: NLC India and Reliance explore underground lignite gasification in Gujarat to cut LNG dependence.

GenAI Adoption: India ranks 5th globally in GenAI usage, with the SIDE 2026 report noting diffusion is broad-based in developing countries. Manufacturing Pulse: HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to a 3-month high of 55.0 in May as new orders and output picked up, even as costs stayed intense. RBI Watch: Economists expect the MPC to hold rates steady despite May inflation risks, rupee weakness and higher bond yields. Markets & Rates: Indian government bonds slipped early as oil prices firmed on Middle East tensions ahead of the June 5 policy decision; Sensex and Nifty rebounded on blue-chip buying. Trade: India–Oman CEPA kicks in from June 1, aiming to boost goods exports and services access; India–US trade talks resume in New Delhi to finalise an interim pact. Energy Costs: Commercial LPG prices were hiked again (Delhi +₹42 to ₹3,113.50 per 19-kg cylinder), squeezing restaurants and hotels. Digital Payments: RBI is looking to expand digital rupee use for welfare payments and cross-border pilots. Real Estate: Mumbai saw 14-year high May registrations (12,315), while home prices in MMR and Pune continued to rise. Civic & Safety: A fire broke out at Delhi’s Ministry of Education building in ITO; in Navi Mumbai, residents raised concerns over muddy drinking water despite testing claims.

US-India Trade: Senior negotiators from India and the US will hold four days of talks in New Delhi to finalise an interim trade pact, with negotiators led by Darpan Jain and Brendan Lynch. India-Oman CEPA: India’s CEPA with Oman kicks in June 1, offering zero duty access for most labour-intensive exports, while India’s rules of origin and customs notifications come into force. Markets & Stocks: ICICI Securities reiterated BUY calls on Star Cement (target Rs 250) and Max Estates (target Rs 610), citing volume growth and strong launch/collections visibility. Real Estate (Mumbai): May property registrations in Mumbai hit a 14-year high at 12,315 units, up 7% YoY, signalling continued demand. Aviation Digital Push: Digi Yatra crossed 10 crore passenger journeys across 38 airports, underscoring India’s push for paperless travel. Regulation & Compliance: Delhi’s MCD suspended two engineers after a building collapse near Saket Metro; separately, legal metrology reforms are being reviewed to ease business compliance. Energy & Water: Navi Mumbai urged conservation as Morbe Dam usable stock fell to about 60 days. Security & Crime: Mumbai Crime Branch took custody of drug trafficker Salim Dola after NCB arrest; probe alleges 30% of black money routed to Dubai property buys.

Energy & Inflation Watch: India’s finance ministry flagged that Strait of Hormuz disruptions are the biggest driver for retail inflation, with fuel-price hikes, a weaker rupee and a likely below-normal monsoon (El Nino-weakened) raising risks for food and growth; inflation was 3.48% in April. Transport Costs in Focus: Mahanagar Gas hiked Mumbai CNG by ₹2/kg to ₹86 and PNG by 50 paise to ₹52/SCM, reviving auto and taxi fare revision demands. Digital Payments Momentum: Paytm founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma said India’s digital payments and mobile economy still have room to expand, with AI set to scale merchant-consumer value. Semiconductor Supply Chain: Nikon is pushing lower-priced lithography tools via in-house manufacturing, while Intel and partners signed a $3.3B India glass substrate deal—both seen as key for AI hardware competition. India-Myanmar Ties: Jaishankar met Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing ahead of Modi talks, focusing on connectivity, trade and border security. Security Update: Delhi court granted 7 days’ police custody to four accused in an ISI-linked case; Delhi Police also claimed a Dawood/ISI-linked terror module bust with arms seized. Policy & Jobs: Punjab approved abolishing the contract system and regularising 65,000 employees. Business Brief: Zara’s India JV (Inditex-Trent) reported FY26 profit down 32% as competition intensified.

Hydrogen & E-fuels Trade Prep: CertifHy and GH2 India signed an LoI at the World Hydrogen Summit 2026 to ready Indian renewable hydrogen and RFNBO e-fuels projects for EU certification, including training via CertifHy Academy and shared EU audit guidance. Myanmar-India Business Push: Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing arrived in India for a five-day visit starting at Bodh Gaya, with talks on border security and connectivity plus a business forum; bilateral trade was $1.95 bn in 2025-26. Energy Costs Hit Households: Mahanagar Gas raised Mumbai CNG by ₹2/kg to ₹86 and PNG by 50 paise to ₹52 per SCM, citing West Asia-linked supply disruptions and higher procurement costs; government also asked OMCs to build 30-day LPG reserves. Gold Moves as War Signal: Gold’s reaction to US-Iran war headlines has been “backward” in recent months, with the report arguing the pattern may be short-lived and tied to Strait of Hormuz risk. Banking Profitability Watch: Crisil expects Indian banks’ RoA to slip 10-15 bps to 1.1-1.2% in FY26 on lower treasury income and higher provisioning, even as NIM holds near 2.9%. Semiconductors Strategy: NITI Aayog urged India to build a $120-$150 bn semiconductor value chain by 2035, targeting $135-$180 bn investment over the decade and stronger public de-risking to crowd in private capital. Policy for CSR Funding: India allowed companies to invest up to 10% of CSR spend in zero-coupon, zero-principal instruments via the Social Stock Exchange to ease compliance and fund NPO projects.

WTO Trade Row: India blocked China’s first WTO request to form a dispute panel over India’s solar PLI incentives and higher duties on some technology imports, with China able to renew the bid at the next DSB meeting. India-US Push: Commerce minister Piyush Goyal met US business leaders in New York to deepen investment and tech ties, including AI, finance, manufacturing and digital payments. RBI Outlook & Fraud: RBI projected 6.9% GDP growth for FY27 while flagging rising banking fraud value (₹48,021 crore in FY26) despite a lower number of cases. NEET Refund Relief: NTA extended the NEET-UG 2026 bank-details deadline for fee refunds to June 22; retest is set for June 21. Monsoon Watch: IMD forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall at 90% of LPA with hotter June conditions, raising kharif and inflation risks. SEBI Action: SEBI penalised Suzlon Energy and executives ₹28.95 crore over alleged misleading financial transactions. Solar & Energy Industry: Delhi Test House got IEC CB Testing Laboratory recognition for solar PV module testing; Mumbai saw CNG/PNG price hikes amid West Asia-linked gas cost pressure. Defence & Security: NSA Ajit Doval met Russia’s maritime board chief Patrushev, focusing on Arctic trade routes, shipbuilding and defence collaboration.

Punjab Local Poll Signal: AAP won 131 wards in Punjab’s local body elections, reinforcing its urban governance clout and testing ground for its national ambitions. India–Korea Trade: CEPA upgrade talks ended with both sides agreeing to tackle India’s widening trade deficit via sub-groups on digital trade, supply chains and strategic industry cooperation. TN CM Delhi Trip: Tamil Nadu CM Vijay returned to Chennai after meeting Modi and Sitharaman, but skipped Congress leaders. Banking & Cash: RBI data shows counterfeit ₹500 notes rose 20.5% to 1.42 lakh in 2025-26; RBI also flagged fewer but higher-value bank fraud cases. Corporate Earnings & Markets: RBI projects India’s growth at 6.9% for 2026-27; stocks saw IT-led strength as crude eased. Policy & Refunds: NEET-UG 2026 fee refund bank-detail deadline extended to June 22. Business Deals: Loop Industries signed an MoU for its first commercial recycled PET plant in Gujarat; Google Cloud is embedding Gemini into long-term India contracts. Global Ties: India–Canada reaffirmed CEPA push and $50 bn trade goal; Piyush Goyal met US industry leaders in New York to deepen investment and supply-chain links. Energy & Weather: Monsoon rains likely below average in 2026 due to El Nino, raising farm and growth concerns. Defence/Industry: India’s AMCA RFP process continues as the next step in defence manufacturing.

India-Canada Trade Push: Piyush Goyal’s Canada visit ends with both sides reaffirming a $50 billion trade goal by 2030, with CEPA talks aimed to wrap by year-end and an early-harvest pact on the table. Global Markets & Energy Shock: A WEF survey flags worsening global growth and rising inflation risks as the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions strain supply chains and energy/food costs; India is seen as the standout growth prospect. Banking Governance: HDFC Bank says an internal audit observation cited in media won’t affect financial statements and doesn’t require disclosure, after shares fell in intraday trade. Defence Industry: India’s AMCA stealth fighter programme is moving toward private-sector participation, signalling a shift in how the defence-industrial ecosystem will be built. Urban & Public Policy: Delhi L-G reviews heatwave relief with cooling zones for vulnerable groups; Mumbai University starts online admissions for distance/online courses for 2026-27. Regional Diplomacy: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing will visit India May 30–June 3 for talks with Modi and a business forum, while India-China border talks in Beijing report progress toward normalization. Health & Safety: India’s dengue vaccine Qdenga rollout is discussed amid the need for an integrated control strategy; a Madras HC orders an insurer to pay ₹5 lakh to kin of a bull-gored victim in a jallikattu case.

OIL Green Energy JV: Oil India’s green arm OGEL has signed a 50:50 joint venture with Hindustan Waste Treatment to build compressed biogas and waste-to-energy projects nationwide, betting on India’s clean-energy and circular-economy push. AI & SaaS shift: Faster AI development is forcing Indian SaaS firms to rethink delivery and pricing, moving from seat-based models toward pay-as-you-go. Markets & oil: Sensex slipped ~0.2% as oil jumped on fresh US-Iran tensions; India VIX eased ~6%, suggesting investors aren’t fully panicking. Banking & governance: HDFC Bank remains under scrutiny after reports alleging it paid Rs 45 crore to attract deposits via MSRDC-linked arrangements; the bank denies wrongdoing. India-Canada trade push: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal in Toronto reaffirmed the USD 50 billion trade goal by 2030 and aims to close CEPA talks by year-end. West Asia impact on tolls: Crisil expects India toll collection growth to moderate to 5-7% this fiscal due to freight and activity slowdown. Ebola watch: Gujarat isolated four people after a Congo-linked traveller showed fever; tests are underway and no confirmed case reported. Energy & finance policy: Finance Ministry will conduct field visits to manufacturing clusters to gather ground-level inputs for Budget planning amid West Asia-linked cost pressures.

Municipal Water Watch: Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation says potable water is back across nodes after a two-day Morbe pipeline shutdown; samples from Juinagar, Nerul and Sanpada were found fit for drinking. Urban Safety & Monsoon Readiness: BMC data shows 79 of 141 C1 (dangerous) private buildings in Mumbai are still occupied, keeping evacuation pressure high as monsoon risks rise. Consumer Rights: Mumbai’s consumer commission orders IndiGo to pay ₹67,000 and refund fares after wrongfully denying boarding to a woman travelling with an infant. Heritage Maintenance: BMC Standing Committee clears a ₹2.37 crore plan to restore and maintain six heritage fountains and 16 statues in Fort, with conservation experts to oversee upkeep. Aviation Cost Pressure: IndiGo and Air India have cut June-July domestic flights (IndiGo 7–10%, Air India ~22%) citing jet fuel spikes linked to the Iran war. Energy & Fuel Supply: Govt says petrol/diesel availability is adequate and that PSU oil firms are absorbing ~₹550 crore daily losses; it warns against diversion of subsidised retail fuel. AI & Startups: Anthropic hires ex-Microsoft executive Sangeeta Bavi to lead sales for startups and mid-market in India. Trade Diplomacy: A US delegation will visit India June 1–4 to finalise an interim trade pact and advance the broader bilateral trade agreement. Capital Markets Rule Tightening: SEBI is set to tighten oversight of how companies use equity funds raised from public markets, with greater reporting and penalties via monitoring agencies. Defence Procurement: India invites bids for the AMCA stealth fighter programme, with three shortlisted Indian contenders competing for development of prototypes.