AGP Executive Report

Industrial Investment: Odisha is pitching a shift from minerals to chemical-led growth at India Chem 2026, as India targets a $1 trillion chemicals sector by 2040. Energy Security: The government is fast-tracking ₹46,000 crore in coal-gasification projects to boost domestic fertiliser and fuel production and cut import dependence. Manufacturing: Pirelli and BKT plan to make up to 800,000 premium car tyres a year in Gujarat in the first phase, with a potential 50-50 joint venture to follow. Business Activity: India’s private-sector growth reached a four-month high in October as services demand strengthened, though hiring slowed. Company Results: Bank of India’s quarterly profit rose 25%; Dr Reddy’s beat profit estimates on domestic demand, while Infosys cut its annual revenue-growth forecast. Trade: India and Poland aim to double bilateral trade by 2030, while the India-EU trade pact could take effect within four to five months. Consumer Demand: Smartphone shipments fell 20% in the third quarter to a decade low as rising memory-chip costs squeezed affordability; Samsung regained the lead.

Markets & Funding: SEBI proposed easing prior-approval rules for exchanges and depositories investing in related businesses. JSW Paints is weighing ₹30 billion in four- and five-year bonds to refinance acquisition funding. Growth & Inflation: Core-sector output rose 7.9% in September, a 30-month high, but wholesale inflation jumped to 11.39% as higher oil prices lifted costs. Trade & Investment: India and Poland agreed to double trade to over $12 billion by 2030 and deepen cooperation in defence, space, nuclear energy and technology. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the India-EU trade pact could take effect in four to five months. Industrial Expansion: Germany’s Knauf Group plans €350 million for four Indian plants, while Odisha pitched its ports, refinery and industrial base to attract chemical and petrochemical investors.

India-Poland Trade: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Poland’s Donald Tusk agreed to double bilateral trade by 2030 and deepen cooperation in defence, space, nuclear energy and technology. Both urged progress on the India-EU free-trade pact. US Trade & Energy: Marco Rubio wrapped up his India visit saying closer economic and energy ties would benefit both countries. Washington says US LPG now accounts for 67% of India’s imports, while President Donald Trump says a trade deal is close. Jio IPO: Reliance’s $3.2 billion Jio Platforms offering was fully subscribed within hours, setting up India’s biggest IPO. Investment: Real estate attracted $6.1 billion in private equity in January-September, with data centres drawing 40% of the total. Battery Manufacturing: India has 86 GWh of downstream battery-storage capacity, but cell production accounts for just 8%, leaving the sector reliant on imports.

Trade: President Donald Trump says an India-US deal is close, while Marco Rubio expects it within weeks; unresolved sectors may be left out. The India-New Zealand FTA has taken effect, opening duty-free access for Indian exports. Markets: Jio Platforms’ ₹30,213-crore IPO was nearly three times subscribed on day one, reaching full subscription in 100 minutes. Sensex and Nifty fell for a second session as oil prices, bond yields and foreign selling weighed. Energy: India’s April-September crude import bill jumped 46% to $90.6 billion, despite broadly flat volumes, as Brent neared $110 a barrel. Growth and investment: Infrastructure output rose 7.9% in September, its fastest pace since November 2023. Vultr plans a 20MW AI supercluster in Chennai, while Kansai Paint will invest 10 billion yen to double Indian production capacity by 2030. AI: Goldman Sachs estimates AI startup IPOs could add $50–100 billion to India’s market value over the next two to five years. Banking: SBI is investigating a suspected data leak; preliminary checks identified 3,897 customer records among material found online.

AI Infrastructure: Vultr plans a 20-megawatt Chennai supercluster using AMD chips, expanding in-country computing capacity for AI firms. Jio IPO: Reliance’s $3.2-billion offer was fully subscribed within 100 minutes; analysts say the scale-up of digital services still needs to prove its earning potential. Trade: The India–New Zealand FTA is in force, giving Indian exports duty-free access; a new electronic customs data pact aims to ease trade. The US says its trade deal with India is close, while seeking greater energy ties. Oil and Markets: Brent above $110 pushed India’s 10-year bond yield to 7.44%, its highest since 2023, while equities fell for a second session. An IMF official urged India to let the rupee absorb more of the oil shock. Growth and Jobs: The RBI projects 7.1% growth in FY27, but former governor D. Subbarao says India must make growth more employment-intensive.

Jio IPO: Public bidding opened for Reliance’s $3.2 billion Jio Platforms share sale, valuing the telecom and digital giant at up to $108.3 billion. Its institutional allocation drew more than $25 billion in bids. India–US Trade: Marco Rubio said the deal was “very close,” with a few points still to settle; Washington is targeting $500 billion in bilateral trade within three years. New Zealand FTA: The pact that took effect October 20 gives Indian exports duty-free access, while New Zealand kiwifruit gets a growing tariff-free quota. Airport Investment: The government plans to invite bids for 11 airports by December, bundling them into five 50-year concessions and courting global investors. Apple’s Growth: Apple India’s FY26 revenue topped ₹1 lakh crore for the first time, rising 31%, while profit jumped 66% to ₹5,311 crore. Festive Spending: Apparel, footwear and major appliances sales rose more than 20% over Navratri-Dussehra, aided by financing; car sales grew just 2% year on year.

US Trade Deal: Marco Rubio said India and the US are “very, very close” to a trade agreement, with a few issues left to settle. Talks also covered energy cooperation as Washington pauses threatened tariffs tied to India’s Russian oil purchases. New Zealand FTA: The pact took effect Tuesday, giving Indian exports duty-free access across all tariff lines and opening new visa routes; New Zealand has committed to facilitate $20 billion in investment over 15 years. Jio IPO: Reliance’s ₹30,213-crore offering drew about $25 billion in anchor bids, with investors putting ₹8,110 crore into the anchor book ahead of the country’s largest IPO. Apple India: FY26 revenue crossed ₹1 lakh crore, up 31%, while net profit surged 66% to ₹5,311 crore, driven by iPhone demand. Online Retail: India’s market is forecast to top $90 billion in 2026, with grocery set to overtake mobiles as the second-largest category.

Trade: India-New Zealand’s free trade agreement took effect on Oct. 20, giving Indian exports zero-duty access and opening new opportunities for businesses. US Deal: Marco Rubio says Washington and New Delhi are “very close” to a trade agreement, with energy, investment and defence on the agenda during his India visit. Earnings: Bajaj Finance’s Q2 standalone profit rose 30.2% year-on-year to ₹5,536 crore, while operating revenue climbed 22.9% to ₹20,891 crore. Capital Markets: Jio Platforms drew about $25 billion in anchor bids and raised ₹8,110 crore ahead of its IPO, making it a focal point of a busy primary-market week. Global Partnerships: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visits Oct. 21–23 with a business delegation, with forums in Delhi and Bengaluru set to focus on trade, technology, energy and investment.

Markets & IPOs: Sensex fell 876 points and the Nifty closed below 22,900 on pressure from bank shares, high crude prices and foreign investor outflows. Jio Platforms’ $3.2 billion IPO drew about $25 billion in bids for its institutional allocation, while Zetwerk’s $518 million offering was subscribed 1.19 times overall. Trade: The India–New Zealand FTA takes effect on October 20, giving Indian exporters duty-free access to New Zealand and tariff relief for sectors including textiles, leather and engineering. Energy & US ties: President Donald Trump’s 60-day waiver of Russia-related oil sanctions eases pressure on India’s energy supply; US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a trade deal was “very close.” Investment: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visits India October 21–23 with a large business delegation, as the two countries look to deepen economic ties. Healthcare: Prices of 137 anti-cancer drugs are set to fall by up to 70% from November 9 under a government cap on trade margins.

Logistics: India will set up an Integrated Transport and Logistics Authority to coordinate roads, rail, ports, aviation and other networks under a 10-year master plan. A shared data repository will track freight and projects worth ₹500 crore or more; the logistics sector is projected to reach $600 billion by 2031-32. Start-ups: Menswear brand The Pant Project raised ₹109 crore in a Series B round led by Mirae Asset Venture. It plans to expand from 25 stores to 150 and enter jeans, athleisure and casualwear. Renewable Energy: KKR is set to invest more than ₹6,000 crore in Petronas’ Indian renewables arm, Gentari, to support expansion and reduce debt, with a possible option to take a stake later. Manufacturing: Haier plans to invest ₹7,000 crore in an Andhra Pradesh appliance plant, with production expected to begin in 2028 and up to 21,000 direct and indirect jobs projected by 2032. Regional Trade: Indian business delegations visited Sri Lanka to explore investment and partnerships in sectors including healthcare, energy, manufacturing, logistics and IT.

Markets: Nine of India’s 10 most-valued firms added ₹3.65 lakh crore last week as the Sensex and Nifty rallied. Investors now turn to quarterly earnings, crude prices, foreign flows and Jio Platforms’ IPO, which opens October 21. Energy and Trade: Russian crude imports fell 13% in September, but a US waiver of Russia-related sanctions offers India temporary relief, not certainty. Drug Prices: Trade margins on 137 cancer medicines will be capped at 30% of MRP from November 9, with prices expected to fall by up to 70%. Investment: The Centre is considering a new mining law to simplify rules and improve ease of doing business. India’s EFTA trade pact is also drawing interest from Norwegian investors in manufacturing, renewable energy and infrastructure. Startups: Delhi has approved ₹50 crore for a new foundation to help startups and MSMEs access testing facilities, mentorship and investors.

Energy and Trade: Washington waived threatened penalties on India’s Russian oil purchases, easing near-term pressure on fuel costs and exporters. But the relief is temporary, leaving businesses exposed to shifting US policy. Economic Outlook: India’s September merchandise trade deficit widened to $30.21 billion as imports outpaced exports. Wholesale inflation accelerated to 11.39%, driven by higher oil and food prices. Healthcare Costs: A 30% cap on trade margins for 137 cancer drugs takes effect November 9; the government expects prices to fall by up to 70% in some cases. Trade Deals: India has notified its first tariff cuts under the New Zealand FTA, effective October 20, including zero duty on specified sheep-meat imports. Delhi Business: Traders say protests disrupted festive-season sales, with losses estimated at ₹3,000 crore.

Banking: The RBI approved the merger of Emirates NBD’s three Indian branches into RBL Bank from December 1, following Emirates NBD’s acquisition of a 60% stake. Central Bank of India reported a 21.1% rise in quarterly standalone profit to ₹1,469 crore. Markets: Foreign investors bought ₹1,166 crore of Indian shares on Friday, though they remained net sellers for the ninth straight week. Trade: Canada-India talks advanced, with a Canadian trade mission reporting 34 commercial agreements worth nearly $300 million. India is also promoting rupee settlements to keep trade flowing with partners short of foreign currency. Energy: Washington’s waiver of planned Russia-oil tariff penalties offers India temporary relief, but the threat could return; the IMF warned prolonged high energy prices could fuel inflation. Growth: Deloitte sees 7.1–7.3% growth in FY27, with private investment key to sustaining momentum. Infrastructure & Digital: Highway projects awarded rose 63% in April–September, while a CareEdge report ranked India’s digital public infrastructure among the world’s 10 most effective reforms.

Rupee & Reserves: India’s forex reserves fell $8.58 billion to $726 billion in the week to October 9, extending a six-week decline as the RBI supports the rupee. Trade Deals: India and the US say the first phase of a trade pact is finalised and in legal drafting, while Canada reported 34 deals worth nearly $300 million during its trade mission to India as both sides push to conclude a wider agreement. Exports: Merchandise exports jumped 23% in September to $44.4 billion, but the goods trade deficit widened to $30.21 billion; services exports also dipped. Growth & Energy: The IMF sees India growing 7% this fiscal year and becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2027. BloombergNEF expects non-fossil sources to exceed 60% of power capacity by 2028, with NTPC set to test solar-thermal technology for round-the-clock clean power. Delhi Business: Traders say protests and security restrictions in Connaught Place and Janpath have cut festive-season footfall and sales.

Trade & Investment: India’s exports rose 23% in September to $44.4 billion, narrowing the trade deficit to $30.21 billion; first-phase US trade-pact terms are finalised, with legal drafting under way. An India–New Zealand FTA takes effect October 20, while Canada talks target year-end. Corporate & Markets: Jio Platforms plans to raise up to $3.2 billion in what could be India’s largest IPO. Bajaj Housing Finance’s Q2 profit rose 18% to ₹757 crore, and L&T Finance’s climbed 33% to ₹975 crore. Finance & Industry: India approved a rollover of its ₹30 billion currency-swap facility for the Maldives, while forex reserves fell $8.58 billion to $726.03 billion. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Japan’s JBIC chief discussed investment in clean energy, semiconductors and critical minerals. Economic Risks: The IMF warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could keep energy prices high and fuel inflation in India.

Banking Deal: Fairfax has been selected to buy a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank for about $5.6 billion and plans to combine it with its Indian insurance and investment businesses; approvals are still required. Chairman Prem Watsa says the bet reflects confidence in India’s growth over the next decade. Digital Economy: Ahead of its IPO, Jio unveiled plans to expand across mobile, broadband and enterprise services, and export its technology stack. Trade: India says the first tranche of its US trade pact is in legal drafting, with implementation tied to securing an edge over competing exporters. Canada’s trade mission to India secured about 30 partnerships worth $300 million as both countries pursue a trade deal. Exports: September merchandise exports rose 23% year on year to $44.4 billion, while the trade deficit widened from August to $30.21 billion but was below a year earlier. Growth Outlook: The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for India to 7% and projects the economy will overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest in 2027. Manufacturing: Stellantis plans to invest ₹4,000 crore and launch 12 Jeep and Citroën models in India by 2030.